College Success Rates

In the best of all possible worlds, one-quarter of students attending a four-year college would earn a bachelor's degree each year. Unfortunately, we do not live in that world.

By comparing enrollment at four-year postsecondary institutions with the number of students earning a bachelor's degree, it is possible to estimate the success rate of these institutions. The estimates show four-year colleges to be woefully short of the 25 percent mark—especially for-profit schools. That's because many students take longer than four years to earn a bachelor's degree and others drop out before earning a degree. Among the nation's four-year postsecondary institutions in 2011-12, here is the ratio of students earning a bachelor's degree to total enrollment, by control of school...

Total four-year schools: 13%
Public four-year schools: 14%
Private, nonprofit schools: 16%
Private, for profit schools: 6%

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Postsecondary Institutions and Cost of Attendance in 2012-13; Degrees and Other Awards Conferred, 2011-12; and 12-Month Enrollment, 2011-12

Teen Birth Rate Plunges

If you think teenagers aren't paying attention to current events, these findings may change your mind. Between 2007 and 2011, the birth rate of the nation's 15-to-19-year-olds fell by a stunning 25 percent, to a record low of 31.3 births per 1,000 women in the age group. Shocked by the Great Recession, sexually active teens became more vigilant about using birth control.

Between 2007 and 2011, the birth rate of Hispanic teenagers fell 34 percent, more than the 24 percent decline for blacks and the 20 percent decline for non-Hispanic whites. The birth rate of Hispanic teens fell by 60 percent in Mississippi and by at least 50 percent in Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Declines in State Teen Birth Rates by Race and Hispanic Origin

Who's Not Healthy?

Your health in six dimensions: drinking, smoking, aerobic activity, muscle strengthening activity, weight, and sleep. This is what the government measures and analyzes to determine how many adults practice healthy behavior in each dimension. Here is the percentage of Americans aged 18 or older who failed to meet each of the healthy behavior guidelines...

1. Drinks too much: 23% Defined as five or more drinks in one day in the past year.
2. Smokes: 20% Defined as current cigarette smokers.
3. No aerobic activity: 34% Defined as never engaging in leisure-time aerobic activity.
4. No muscle-strengthening activity: 74% Defined as never engaging in leisure-time muscle-strengthening activity.
5. Obese: 28% Defined as a body mass index of 30 or more.
6. Sleep deprived: 30% Defined as less than 7 hours of sleep (8 hours for 18-to-21-year-olds) per 24 hours, on average.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, National Health Interview Survey, Health Behaviors of Adults: United States, 2008-2010

Teen Facebook Friend Count

Most teenagers are on Facebook, and most have hundreds of friends. The median is 300. Here is the distribution of Facebook users aged 12 to 17 by number of Facebook friends...

Under 150: 27%
151 to 300: 27%
301 to 600: 24%
601 or more: 20%

Source: Pew Internet and American Life Project, Teens, Social Media, and Privacy

BLS Examines Spending on Pets

The average American household devotes more than $500 a year to pets, or 1 percent of its expenditures, according to an analysis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's more than the average household spends on alcohol or landline phones.

In its analysis, the BLS looks at pet spending from 2007 through 2011 and by a variety of demographic characteristics. The biggest spenders on pets are empty-nest couples: married couples without children at home spent an average of $698 on pets in 2011, and householders aged 55 to 64 spent $636.

Metro Advantages

The larger the metro, the more likely college graduates are to land a job that makes use of their degree and college major. This is the unsurprising finding of a Liberty Street Economics analysis of the skills match between college graduates and jobs.

Among employed Americans with a bachelor's degree in 2010, 62 percent had a job that required a college degree and 27 percent had a job that matched their college major, according to the researchers. (Both numbers are remarkably low, but that's another story.) The bigger the metro, the better the match between education and job--although the improvement is not all that impressive. As metropolitan size rises from the 50th to the 99.9th percentile (think Syracuse versus New York), the percentage of employed college graduates with a job that requires a college degree increases from 61.1 to 64.5 percent. The probability that college graduates will work in jobs related to their college major rises from 26.7 to 29.1 percent.

If the comparison had been between college graduates in metro versus nonmetro areas, it's likely the differences would be more impressive. The emptying out of the nation's nonmetropolitan counties over the past few years (see post here) is evidence that college graduates in nonmetro areas are seeking better opportunities elsewhere.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics, Do Big Cities Help College Graduates Find Better Jobs? 

Downward Mobility for Generation X

Add another item to the long list of troubles plaguing Generation X. The way things are going, according to a new study, Gen Xers will be forced to make do in retirement with only 50 percent of their pre-retirement income. Financial planners recommend a replacement rate of at least 70 percent for a comfortable retirement.

The Economic Mobility Project estimated median replacement rates by generation based on projected household net worth plus the value of annuitized assets such as pensions and Social Security and assuming a retirement age of 65. As you can see, the projected income replacement rate of Generation X is well below the rate for older generations...

Generation X (born 1966-1975): 50%
Late Boomers (born 1956-1965):  59%
Early Boomers (born 1946-1955): 82%
War Babies (born 1936-1945): 99%
Depression Babies (born 1926-1935): 86%

Source: The Economic Mobility Project, Retirement Security Across Generations: Are Americans Prepared for their Golden Years?

Frequency of Flying

Percent distribution of American adults by the frequency with which they fly commercial airlines for business or personal reasons...

Never: 33%
Less than once a year: 31%
About once a year: 18%
Two to three times a year: 12%
Every two to three months: 5%
Once a month or more: 2%

Source: Harris Interactive, American Flyers Willing to Pay More for Personal Space

The Internet is Destroying the Middle Class

That's the premise of tech guru Jaron Lanier's chilling new book on what the Internet is doing to us. In Who Owns the Future, he warns...

"Making information free is survivable so long as only limited numbers of people are disenfranchised. As much as it pains me to say so, we can survive if we only destroy the middle classes of musicians, journalists, and photographers. What is not survivable is the additional destruction of the middle classes in transportation, manufacturing, energy, office work, education, and health care. And all that destruction will come surely enough if the dominant idea of an information economy isn't improved."

Big data (which the Internet collects and digital networks mine and sell at great profit) is nothing more than people, says Lanier--millions and billions of people revealing (for free!) their wants, needs, insights, and experiences whenever they visit a web site, post on Facebook, click on a link, walk in a store, or drive down a street. He thinks big data companies should pay people for these contributions. Digital networks must become two-way streets. If they don't, says Lanier, the Internet will destroy the middle class.

Not Afraid of Terrorism

Percentage of Americans who are "not too" or "not at all" worried that they or someone in their family will become a victim of terrorism...

2001: 50%
2013: 60%

Note: Gallup surveys conducted on September 21 and 22, 2001, and April 24 and 25, 2013.
Source: Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics Online

Nonmetro Counties Are in Decline

A record number of nonmetropolitan counties are losing population, according to the USDA's Economic Research Service. Between 2010 and 2012, fully 1,261 nonmetropolitan counties lost a combined 302,000 people. The decline is occurring in nearly two-thirds of the nation's nonmetropolitan counties.

Behind the decline is ongoing outmigration to metropolitan areas and the baby bust. In many nonmetropolitan counties, deaths now exceed births. Coupled with outmigration, the consequence is population loss. About 300 counties experienced "natural decrease" for the first time during the 2010-12 time period. For a map of these counties, click on the link.

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Recent Population Change

Middle Class by Education

Percent of Americans who say they are middle class, by educational attainment...

Graduate degree: 75.5%
Bachelor's degree: 62.7%
Associate's degree: 45.2%
High school graduate only: 34.1%
Not a high school graduate: 30.6%

Source: Survey Documentation and Analysis, University of California-Berkeley, 2012 General Social Survey

Cracking the Retirement Nest Egg

Why can't Americans save more for retirement? That's the question asked by the Federal Reserve Board in an analysis of early withdrawals from retirement accounts. Perhaps early withdrawals are the problem, the Fed researchers suggest. We aren't saving much for retirement because we can't leave our nest eggs alone, cracking into them early—before age 59.5. Taking an early withdrawal from a retirement account is something most people would prefer to avoid because the money withdrawn is taxable and a 10 percent penalty is levied on it as well. Given these disincentives, it is reasonable to assume (and the Fed researchers show) that those who take early withdrawals are experiencing financial hardship. But how common is it to crack open the nest egg?

By examining tax returns, the Fed researchers estimated the frequency of early withdrawals from retirement accounts and their size relative to retirement contributions. Both figures are disturbingly large. Among taxpayers under age 55 with a retirement account in 2010, nearly one in four (23.8 percent) took an early withdrawal. To determine whether the effects of the Great Recession were behind this high rate of withdrawal, the researchers looked at rates in earlier years. Much to their surprise, early withdrawal was common well before the Great Recession. In 2004, 21.2 percent of retirement account owners under age 55 took an early withdrawal. In 2007, the figure was 22.2 percent.

Relative to retirement contributions, early withdrawals loom large. In 2004, early withdrawals from retirement accounts accounted for 30 percent of contributions made that year. By 2010, the figure had grown to 45 percent. With nearly half of our retirement contributions being withdrawn early, it's no wonder our nest eggs aren't growing.  

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Early Withdrawals from Retirement Accounts During the Great Recession, Robert Argento, Victoria L. Bryant, and John Sabelhaus, 2013-22

Marijuana Eradication: 2012 Update

Statistics from the Domestic Cannabis Eradication/Suppression Program of the Drug Enforcement Administration...

Total cultivated plants eradicated: 3,933,959
Number of arrests: 6,508
Value of assets seized: $32,008,581

Source: Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics Online

Homeownership Hurts Job Markets

What's that again? Homeownership hurts rather than helps the job market? That's what economists David G. Blanchflower and Andrew J. Oswald discovered when analyzing state-level data on homeownership and unemployment: "High homeownership impairs the vitality of the labor market and slowly grinds out greater rates of joblessness," the authors find.

The higher the rate of homeownership, the greater a state's unemployment rate not the next year, but two to three years later. More homeownership also leads to fewer new businesses. Zoning might be one way areas of high homeownership discourage new business and suppress job growth. Another factor might be the NIMBY effect, in which homeowners fight business development, suppressing the labor market and creating future unemployment.

Source: Peterson Institute for International Economics, Does High Home-Onwership Impair the Labor Market? Working Paper 13-3, May 2013

Are Americans Buying More Guns?

True or false: Americans are buying more guns. One way to determine whether this statement is fact or fiction is by examining the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Survey, which captures household spending on guns and ammunition in the spending category "hunting and fishing equipment." Although hunting and fishing equipment includes rods and reels, bait and tackle, and bows and arrows as well as guns and ammunition, an analysis of trends in the category is revealing.

Average household spending: Between 2000 and 2011, average annual household spending on hunting and fishing equipment fell slightly, from $33.77 to $33.06 (in 2011 dollars). During those 11 years, spending on the category peaked in 2002 at $44.61 and bottomed out in 2010 at $27.00. So there has been no upward trend in average household spending.

Percent of households buying: The Consumer Expenditure Survey also collects information on the percentage of households that make purchases during an average quarter. During an average quarter of 2000, for example, 2.20 percent of households spent money on hunting and fishing equipment. This figure fell as low as 1.83 percent in 2007. In 2011, however, it was at an 11-year high of 2.80 percent. So there has been an upward trend in the percentage of households buying.

Best customers: Non-Hispanic whites spend 17 percent more than the average household on hunting and fishing equipment, making them the "best customers" of the category. In fact, they are the only race/Hispanic origin group that spends more than average on these items. Black households spend 44 percent less than average on hunting and fishing equipment, Hispanic households spend 68 percent less, and Asian households spend almost nothing on the category. The percentage of non-Hispanic white households purchasing hunting and fishing equipment during an average quarter has grown steadily in recent years: 2.26% in 2007; 2.55% in 2008; 2.80% in 2009; 2.98% in 2010; and 3.40% in 2011. So the best customers are becoming even better customers.

Are Americans buying more guns? This analysis suggests that some are.

SSA Stats: Baby Bust Continues

For the past few decades, the IRS has required parents to provide Social Security numbers for dependent children on their tax returns. Since then, all newborns in the United States receive Social Security numbers, and applications for numbers by year of birth closely track actual births. While the Social Security Administration's numbers are not exactly the same as the complete count of births provided by the National Center for Health Statistics, they are available sooner and are an excellent indicator of trends in births.

The latest statistics show that the baby bust continues. In 2012, the Social Security Administration provided 3,931,200 numbers for newborns. This was 19,502 fewer than in 2011 and 393,000 below the peak year of 2007. Although the baby bust is ongoing, the decline is slowing. The biggest year-over-year drop (-133,499) occurred between 2009 and 2010.

Source: Social Security Administration, Social Security Number Holders

Why Young People Don't Vote

More than a year ago, I wrote an article for the New Republic about why fewer young adults would vote in the 2012 presidential election than in 2008 (The Surprising Trends that Suggest Young People Won't Vote in 2012). Was I right or what? Here are the voting rates of citizens by age group (and the percentage point change in the rate between 2008 and 2012)...

18 to 24: 41.2% (-7.3)
25 to 44: 57.3% (-2.7)
45 to 64: 67.9% (-1.3)
65-plus: 72.0% (+1.7)

To put it bluntly, the voter participation rate of 18-to-24-year-olds plunged between 2008 and 2012. While the overall rate fell by 1.8 percentage points (to 61.8 percent), the rate among young adults fell by an enormous 7.3 percentage points. One reason for the decline is the typical lower level of enthusiasm for an incumbent. The second reason for the decline is that voting is for grown ups, and millions of young adults have been prevented from growing up by the lingering effects of the Great Recession. Voting rates rise steadily with age as young adults find jobs, earn a living, set up house, marry, and have children--in other words, as they become established members of the community. By these measures, fewer young adults were grown ups in 2012 than in 2008. The decline in their voter participation rate was predictable, and predicted.

Source: Census Bureau, Voting and Registration

Debt Free in 2012 and Before

A new study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland examines a representative sample of Americans to determine what percentage of individuals were debt free in 2012.

And the number is...26 percent. Slightly more than one in four Americans were debt free in 2012. Using data from Equifax's Consumer Credit Panel, the researchers traced the debt history of these debt-free individuals back to 2007 and 2000, finding...

• 20 percent had no debt in all three time periods 
• 32 percent were debtors in 2000, but debt free in 2007 and 2012
• 40 percent were debtors in both 2000 and 2007, but debt free in 2012
• 8 percent were debt free in 2000, debtors in 2007, and debt free again in 2012

To calculate the percentage of all Americans who were debt free in the three years examined (you could call them the Debt Averse), multiply the 26 percent who were debt free in 2012 by the 20 percent who were also debt free in 2007 and 2000. And the result is a tiny 5 percent.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, The Evolution of Debt Balances

The Declining Political Power of Older Whites

Among the 133 million Americans who reported voting in the 2012 presidential election, only 74 percent were non-Hispanic white. This figure is down from 81 percent in 2000 and 88 percent in 1992. What a difference a few decades make in the country's voter demographics. Here is the breakdown of 2012 voters by race (alone or in combination) and Hispanic origin...

Asian: 3.3%
Black: 14.0%
Hispanic: 8.4%
Non-Hispanic white: 73.7%

Add age to the calculation, and non-Hispanic whites aged 45 or older were only 48 percent of 2012 voters. This is well below their 54 percent share of voters in the 2010 congressional election.

Source: Census Bureau, Voting and Registration

Who Voted in 2012?

In the 2012 presidential election, blacks were more likely to vote than non-Hispanic whites. Fully 65.9 percent of blacks (race alone or in combination) voted in 2012 compared with a smaller 64.1 percent of non-Hispanic whites. The black voting rate hit an all-time high in 2012, while the non-Hispanic white rate was lower than in 2004 or 2008.

Fewer than half of Asian or Hispanic citizens went to the polls in 2012. The Asian voting rate was about the same in 2012 as in 2008, while the Hispanic rate was lower. Here are the 2012 voting rates for U.S. citizens aged 18 or older by race and Hispanic origin...

Total: 61.8%
Asian: 47.9%
Black: 65.9%
Hispanic: 48.0%
Non-Hispanic white: 64.1%

Source: Census Bureau, Voting and Registration

Dow 15,000: So What?

The Dow may have closed above 15,000 for the first time ever, but that doesn't matter to nearly half the population. The percentage of Americans who own stock is at a low, according to Gallup's Economy and Finance Survey, which has been measuring the level of stock ownership since 1998. In April 2013, only 52 percent of Americans owned stock personally or jointly with a spouse, either directly or in a mutual fund or self-directed retirement account. This figure is down from a high of 65 percent in 2007.

Here is the percentage of Americans who owned stock in April 2013 by age (and the percentage point decline in ownership since 2008)...

Aged 18 to 29:  27% (-6)
Aged 30 to 49:  58% (-14)
Aged 50 to 64:  61% (-10)
Aged 65-plus:  57% (-6)

Source: Gallup, U.S. Stock Ownership Stays at Record Low